Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 16.668931 20.217795 24.163989 28.852785 34.246323 40.230252 47.344308
2025-04-06 12.045141 16.786347 22.634096 30.265187 39.839100 51.326736 66.014192
2025-04-13 8.176226 12.870682 19.196355 28.108655 40.078798 55.320351 75.876364
2025-04-20 6.484008 11.291880 18.251639 28.662925 43.387736 62.976058 90.430821
2025-04-27 5.336720 10.188062 17.673545 29.467080 46.889682 70.920178 105.668772
2025-05-04 4.517561 9.389896 17.356430 30.497246 50.656816 79.330819 121.893005
2025-05-11 3.794343 8.577775 16.851026 31.103636 53.748352 86.874931 137.220174
2025-05-18 3.084458 7.617010 15.924301 30.876063 55.469036 92.444040 149.928740
2025-05-25 2.414738 6.561899 14.645071 29.868353 55.805059 95.883485 159.608561
2025-06-01 1.962284 5.838680 13.838061 29.535837 57.132312 100.813297 171.634064
2025-06-08 1.509754 4.982405 12.620459 28.296676 56.796124 103.067366 179.633216
2025-06-15 1.326943 4.731061 12.575659 29.200947 60.149056 111.292486 197.119031
2025-06-22 1.037682 4.140777 11.782866 28.720734 61.291467 116.424239 210.713111
2025-06-29 0.914871 3.985502 11.939805 30.167531 66.063001 127.889802 235.074129
2025-07-06 0.628853 3.196700 10.449117 28.018985 63.994996 127.728785 240.652158
2025-07-13 0.522623 2.958013 10.249463 28.571988 67.045963 136.438488 261.090536
2025-07-20 0.443359 2.781026 10.171303 29.374107 70.623331 146.223470 283.694192
2025-07-27 0.383257 2.651398 10.194173 30.401670 74.708382 157.085014 308.512492
2025-08-03 0.320815 2.475670 10.047453 31.006536 77.967203 166.599241 331.376699
2025-08-10 0.250793 2.214294 9.583667 30.779534 79.475887 172.980048 349.066954
2025-08-17 0.181780 1.895468 8.852338 29.774365 79.241470 176.097814 361.158112
2025-08-24 0.138411 1.683671 8.410889 29.442691 80.407379 181.861111 378.082734
2025-08-31 0.094880 1.412565 7.674933 28.206683 79.457312 183.515329 387.701708